MNB Director: The rate of price increases may decrease permanently to the central bank’s tolerance band at the beginning of 2026

He highlighted that inflation was in line with the June Inflation Report. The price-limiting measures also resulted in a substantial inflation-reducing effect in the most recent month, August, but inflationary pressure continues to exist outside this product range. It was expected that the margin caps would remain in place until the end of November, and the price restrictions currently have a technical impact of 1.5 percentage points per month on the indicator.

He added that inflation could range between 4.0-4.5 percent for the rest of the year. According to the report, the central bank expects inflation to be 4.6 percent by 2025, which is 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous forecast – he explained. Next year, it could be 3.8 percent, 0.1 percentage point higher than the June forecast. The effect of the strengthening forint is increasingly reflected in manufacturing producer prices and import prices, thus supporting the reduction of inflation.

András Balatoni said that GDP could expand by 0.6 percent this year, a 0.2 percentage point decrease compared to the previous forecast, primarily due to the decline in agricultural production due to the drought. Strong consumption dynamics will remain an important factor for growth over the entire forecast horizon, which is supported by both rising real wages and government measures – he underlined. Exports and investments may contribute to growth from 2026, driven by the improvement in the European economy and the reduction in uncertainty.