Hungarian sour cherries may be more in demand than ever before – historical market outlook in 2025

Harvest at a historic low

According to FruitVeB’s preliminary domestic harvest estimate, this year’s sour cherry harvest could be only around 30–35 thousand tons, which is well below the usual 60–70 thousand tons, and even below last year’s already weak 51 thousand tons. The crop failure particularly affects early varieties – such as the ‘Érdi bőtermő’ – which predicts a tight supply at the beginning of the processing season. The season of clustered sour cherries may bring some relief, but this may also last for a maximum of 2-3 weeks.

The weather may also worsen the situation: based on the experience of recent years, hailstorms, drought or heat stress can occur at any time, which can further reduce the already low yield.

It’s not just here, it’s all over Europe

In addition to the poor domestic harvest, all major sour cherry producing countries – including Poland, Serbia, Germany – are struggling with similar difficulties. The frosts that swept through the spring practically wiped out sour cherry orchards throughout Europe. The situation is further aggravated by the fact that stocks of processed sour cherry products (preserved, frozen sour cherries, concentrates) are also negligible – last year’s poor harvest, especially in Poland and Hungary, has already taken away the remaining reserves in stock.

However, demand is strong: there is a serious interest in Hungarian sour cherries, especially in Poland, but according to forecasts, all major European processing countries will try to secure the necessary quantities.

Extreme prices and waiting characterize the market

Due to the unusual supply situation, no preliminary contracts have been concluded for processed sour cherry products this year. Market players are waiting, as it is currently impossible to accurately price the raw material costs. While this represents an opportunity for producers to achieve higher prices, it also carries a risk if they cannot enforce these higher purchase prices for finished products.

According to FruitVeB experts, domestic prices paid for Class I sour cherries for refrigeration and canning purposes are expected to well exceed last year’s net end-of-season price of HUF 400/kg. Higher prices could be key to ensuring that the raw material does not leave the country – in 2024, nearly a third of the crop, about 16,000 tons of sour cherries, went to the export market, mainly to Poland.