The VOSZ Barometer is low, but the outlook is encouraging

By: Trademagazin Date: 2025. 01. 20. 14:08

The main indicator of the VOSZ Barometer, launched two years ago, fell to a record low in the last quarter of 2024. During a background discussion presenting the results of the survey reflecting the business sentiment, investment willingness and financial situation of VOSZ member SMEs, László Perlusz, Secretary General of VOSZ, pointed out that the distorting effect of intra-year seasonality may have also appeared in the indicators at the end of 2024. He believes that the Barometer has most likely reached its lowest point and the index will increase in the next survey, which the Sándor Demján Program can greatly facilitate by improving entrepreneurial sentiment.

The main indicator of the VOSZ Barometer decreased by 5 percentage points to 47% in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter, which is the lowest value in the history of the survey launched at the beginning of 2023, highlighted Ákos Kozák, co-chairman of the VOSZ, co-founder and director of economic research of the Balance Institute, which prepared the survey, during the background discussion presenting the latest figures. The main indicator of the Barometer thus fell below 50% for the first time, meaning that the Barometer indicated a pessimistic mood for the first time.

The main indicator falling below 50% was largely determined by the fact that the three sub-indices (the indicator indicating business sentiment, investment willingness and financial situation) also fell to their lowest values so far. Of the three sub-indices, the indicator showing the financial situation is at the highest level (61%) in the fourth quarter of 2024, while the indicator reflecting the willingness to invest (24%) shows the lowest value, and the indicator indicating the business sentiment is 54%. If we compare the annual main indicator of the survey for 2024 with the 2023 data, we can see that it decreased by 5 percentage points last year to 51%, meaning that the 2024 index still closed at a value above 50%, i.e. in positive territory.

According to László Perlusz, Secretary General of the VOSZ, a major role in the Barometer’s fall to its lowest point was played by the fact that after 2023, which was characterized by recession and high inflation, businesses expected a recovery in 2024, which did not happen. “By 2024, GDP growth of around 0.5% is expected, although consumption increased last year, this was more in the direction of services, retail turnover did not increase significantly,” assessed the VOSZ Secretary General. In response to a journalist’s question about how the main indicator of the VOSZ Barometer might develop in the future, László Perlusz said: “We have most likely reached the bottom, and it can only go up from there. The Sándor Demján Program can greatly help improve entrepreneurial sentiment.”