Surprise from China: exports jumped by 21.8%, chip exports grew significantly

By: Trademagazin Date: 2026. 03. 10. 09:59

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China started 2026 much stronger than expected: according to customs statistics, exports increased by 21.8% year-on-year in January-February, while the analyst consensus expected a much lower expansion. The picture was reinforced by the fact that the trade surplus in the first two months was around $213-214 billion, compared to around $169 billion a year earlier.

Not just tech: “classic” products also pulled it

The main driver of growth continued to be electronics and technology demand, with global demands related to AI investments. The semiconductor segment stood out: according to Reuters, semiconductor exports jumped by 66.5%. At the same time, Reuters and Economx also drew attention to the fact that exports of clothing, textiles and bags also increased significantly, while these were under pressure in several markets last year due to competitors in South and Southeast Asia.

Interest in the “new three” (electric cars, lithium-ion batteries, solar panels) remained strong, and China increased exports in several regions: for example, an expansion of nearly 30% was mentioned towards ASEAN countries, with a significant increase towards Europe.

What comes next: short-term “run-out”, longer-term uncertainty

According to market participants, the fast start to the year may also be due to the fact that the manufacturers tried to bring forward deliveries (due to trade and regulatory uncertainties, among other things). However, the continuation is overshadowed by two major risks:

geopolitical tensions and supply chains: the conflict in the Middle East and the risks of sea routes (e.g. the Strait of Hormuz) could easily disrupt global logistics and push up energy prices;
trade policy: there is little sign of an easing of US-China trade tensions in the short term, while the diplomatic negotiations in the coming months will be decisive may be.

If the Chinese export side remains strong in the long term, it could improve supply flexibility for Hungarian importers and retail chains in certain non-food and packaging/technology categories in the short term. At the same time, due to geopolitical risks, logistics costs could rebound at any time, which could indirectly put pressure on shelf prices through purchase prices and delivery times.