MBH quick analysis: Tourism will continue to soar this year

Current performance of tourism:

• The tourism sector also started well in the first month of 2026: 1.1 million guests spent 2.4 million guest nights. The number of guests in total increased by 5.3% and the number of guest nights increased by 3.6% in tourist accommodation compared to a year earlier.
• The number of domestic guests was 4.6% higher and the number of guest nights spent by them was 2.5% higher than in the same month of the previous year.
• In contrast, the growth of foreign guests continues to be more dynamic: The number of foreign guests increased by 6.0% and the number of guest nights spent by them was 4.4% higher compared to the same month of the previous year.

• Total gross sales revenue amounted to 66.4 billion forints in January, which is 8% more at current prices than a year earlier.
• With the Széchenyi Holiday Card, cardholders spent 4.5% less at current prices, or about 2.1 billion forints, at tourist accommodation compared to the same month of the previous year. The decline may be due to the fact that until April 2026, the SZÉP card can be temporarily used again to purchase cold food, which may have partially diverted spending from accommodation services.
• According to the latest available data, passenger traffic at Liszt Ferenc Airport approached 20 million people in 2025, which represented an 11.7% increase compared to the previous year. The foundation stone for Terminal 3 was laid in February. According to KPMG, the project could create up to 63.9 billion forints of indirect added value by 2027, which could provide jobs for around 6,400 people. In the coming years, a total of around 1,000 billion forints worth of investments may be implemented at the airport, including the development of the expressway, the construction of a new terminal building complex, and the development of the railway.

Outlook:

• Accommodation services: We expect the growth trend in tourism to continue in line with international processes in 2026. From the point of view of accommodation and hospitality, it is key that we expect a gross wage increase of around 9% in 2026, which supports domestic tourism, and inflation may decrease to below 3% on an annual average, which may result in more predictable demand. The number of guest nights is expected to continue to increase in 2026, primarily from leisure and business tourism, and the presence of foreigners will continue to be decisive for the sector.
• The MTÜ aims to focus in the future on improving quality and attracting tourists with a higher willingness to spend. The goal is not to significantly increase the number of guests of 20 million, but to prioritize a quality approach.
• Hospitality: In 2025, the seasonally and calendar-adjusted volume index of catering establishments remained practically stable. There has been no significant increase in the turnover of catering establishments in the catering industry since Covid. That is why the government decided to introduce an action plan consisting of 5+1 elements for the approximately 9,600 catering establishments with hot kitchens. On February 13, the decree was extended to include pastry shops, which means supporting another 3,000 catering establishments. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, a 100 billion forint support package was allocated for catering establishments, which was supplemented by an additional 9–12 billion forints specifically to help pastry shops. The 5+1 package includes tax exemptions, reduced tourism development contributions, preferential loans and administrative reductions to help offset the effects of the minimum wage increase.
• By mid-2025, 42,000 catering establishments were operating in Hungary, compared to 45,000 two years earlier and 50,000 before Covid.