MBH quick analysis: Retail trade momentum decreased in May

By: Trademagazin Date: 2025. 07. 07. 12:47

After Easter spending, retail sales growth slowed in May: total sales grew by 2.1% year-on-year, but fell by 1.3% month-on-month. Retail sales are 1.7% above the 2021 base. Although the pace of growth slowed more than expected after the holiday season, retail sales are still on an upward trajectory, and we expect the upward trend to persist in 2025. Looking at the first five months, the expansion is driven by the non-food category, while the food category is continuously losing momentum.

Retail performance:

Based on seasonally and calendar-adjusted data for May, retail sales volume was 1.3% lower than in April. We can speak of a general decline, as the volume decreased in all three main categories: in both food and food-related mixed trade and non-food, the turnover volume was 1% lower than in the previous month, while in the case of fuels, the volume was 3.9%. The current figure is 1.7% above the monthly average of 2021, which fits into the slow growth trend that has been going on for a year and a half.

In an annual comparison, the momentum is visible: turnover increased by 2.1% compared to May last year. The expansion was clearly driven by the non-food category (+4%), while fuel turnover dragged it down (-1.1%). Food and food-related mixed trade essentially stagnated (+0.5%), which shows that the food margin freeze has no lasting effect on increasing turnover. Excluding fuel turnover, the annual growth was 2.7%.