MBH quick analysis: The snow situation shaped store traffic in January

This is supported by various state transfers (e.g. gun money, 13th month pension and one-week installment of the 14th month) and the increased minimum wage and minimum wage, which were implemented for the first time in February this year. The increase in consumer confidence in February also points in this direction. In addition, fuel sales may increase further in the February-March period, as the population and agricultural players may have started to stock up due to the shutdown of the Friendship oil pipeline and the war in Iran. In 2026, retail sales may grow by around 4.4% for the whole year, although the highly unpredictable and rapidly changing situation in the Middle East may fundamentally affect the sector’s performance through the forint exchange rate, inflation trends, or increases in freight rates.

Trade performance:

• Based on seasonally and calendar-adjusted data for January, retail sales volume increased by 0.5% compared to December. The monthly change was primarily driven by light fuel sales, which increased by 5.8%, while the non-food category expanded by only 0.7% and the food category decreased by 0.1%. The latter is due to a 3.1% monthly decrease in food specialty stores. Within the non-food category, clothing store turnover increased significantly, by 6.4%, which is likely due to the colder January weather, which may also explain the surge in fuel turnover due to price increases. Online commerce also started the year strongly (+6.0% month-on-month). The January figure is 4.5% above the monthly average for 2021.
• Compared to January 2025, turnover increased by 3.5% (according to raw data, +3.0%), however, the one-month change alone would have meant a smaller annual expansion of approx. 2.0% before filtering out calendar effects. The reason for the higher annual dynamics is that there was a significant revision in the previous data (presumably due to changes in seasonal patterns). On a fixed basis, the value for January last year was 0.4 percentage points lower, while the data has been consistently higher since June, and by 0.6 percentage points for December. Together, these figures account for the 1 percentage point difference between the expected and the reported raw data.
• The non-food category and fuel sales contributed mostly to the annual growth in November. The sales of second-hand goods, drugstores and online stores are still showing double-digit annual growth (although the pace of the first two seems to be decreasing), and even within the food category, the sales of specialty stores are continuing to deteriorate. One reason for this (based on data and industry reports) is that the margin freeze is driving customers away from smaller stores and towards larger chains.
• In January, the volume of domestic mail-order and online retail sales increased by 14.3% year-on-year, increasing by 6.0% compared to the previous month. Its share of retail sales is currently 9.8% (which represents a 0.5 percentage point increase in share on a monthly basis based on revised data).

Source: KSH, MBH edit