The Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) reported better-than-expected GDP data

By: Trademagazin Date: 2025. 07. 31. 12:06

In Q2 2025, Hungary’s GDP figures published by the HCSO exceeded preliminary expectations: the raw year-on-year growth rate was 0.1%, seasonally and calendar-adjusted 0.2%, while the quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted growth reached 0.4%. These results outperformed analysts’ forecasts for both annual and quarterly growth, indicating a somewhat better-than-expected economic performance.

The HCSO has not yet published detailed data, but according to its statement, the growth was positively supported by services, retail trade, and construction, while agriculture and industry held back the overall performance.

Outlook

Overall, the second-quarter GDP figures suggest that the Hungarian economy remains capable of expansion, though the growth is slow and selective. It is primarily driven by domestic consumption and the services sector, while agriculture and industry continue to face challenges.

As anticipated, services and construction likely contributed positively to the economy’s Q2 performance. However, industry and agriculture were again unable to expand. Due to the weak performance of agriculture and the slower ramp-up of investments in the battery and automotive sectors, we slightly revise our GDP forecast downward from the current 1.1% by a few tenths of a percentage point.

While wage growth has slightly slowed, household consumption is expected to remain the primary driver of economic growth, supported by the dynamic expansion of consumer lending. Investment activity is projected to stabilize slowly from 2026 onwards. Industrial production may also stabilize in the second half of this year and cautiously begin to grow next year as foreign direct investment projects gradually start to bear fruit. However, due to the slower start of the battery and automotive sectors, we expect weaker growth in 2026 compared to our current forecast, according to MBH’s analysis.