MBH Bank: The forint can certainly remain strong until the end of the year

By: Trademagazin Date: 2025. 09. 17. 10:51

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The forint exchange rate has strengthened to a two-year high in recent days, and its momentum against the euro may persist for the rest of the year. The strength of the domestic currency is partly due to the 6.5 percent central bank base rate, which has been stable for a year and is not expected to change this year – however, a new interest rate cut cycle may start from the middle of next year. GDP growth has not yet been able to take off due to the tariff war and the economic slowdown characteristic of the whole of Europe, so MBH Bank analysts continue to maintain their annual forecast of 0.8 percent. The average annual inflation is expected to be around 4.5 percent, but it is an encouraging sign that the level of core inflation has fallen to a level not seen in four years, according to the latest data.

The full Macroeconomic Outlook of the MBH Analysis Center can be accessed at this link.

Tariff wars pose significant risks

Although the trade agreement between the United States and the EU has eased tensions, the 15 percent tariff ceiling poses a serious burden on the continent’s economy, and the unresolved issues of the tariff wars continue to pose risks for Europe. As the impact of the targeted economic stimulus program of our country’s most important trading partner, Germany, will become more noticeable from 2026, industrial orders and exports are also showing a decline for the time being – thus also holding back Hungarian growth.

“Although GDP data exceeded preliminary expectations in the second quarter, overall we see that the average growth for the year as a whole could be 0.8 percent. The growth of services, mainly the information and communication sector, as well as retail and hospitality, strengthened the economy, while industry and agriculture suffered a significant decline – mainly due to unfavorable weather conditions and weak external demand. At the same time, it is encouraging that the German and eurozone manufacturing purchasing manager indices have risen to multi-year highs in recent months, so this may also give a boost to the domestic economy next year”

– stated Zoltán Árokszállási, Director of the MBH Analysis Center.