MBH Bank: GDP growth may jump to 4.2 percent next year, but the 2.7 percent growth target can be maintained this year as well

By: Trademagazin Date: 2024. 07. 04. 13:36

MBH Bank’s analysts expect an economic growth of 2.7 percent for the year 2024, but for 2025 they are projecting a growth that is significantly more favorable than this year, up to 4.2 percent – it was revealed at the press event presenting the latest macroeconomic forecasts of MBH Bank. According to the MBH Analytical Center, the economic outlook for 2024 is characterized by a duality: while industrial production may recover more difficult than expected, domestic consumer demand may show a sharp increase, thus giving a boost to GDP growth. The analysts adjusted their average inflation expectations for next year slightly upwards, to 3.5 percent, while the inflation expectations for this year changed from 4.1 percent to 3.8 percent.

MBH Bank’s analysts continue to expect GDP growth of 2.7 percent by 2024. According to the experts, the outlook for this year’s economic growth is characterized by duality, since due to the industrial economy recovering later than expected, it is unlikely that industrial production will end positively this year as a whole – at the same time, in addition to weak industrial export demand, domestic consumer demand is clearly showing signs of recovery. Consumption may pick up further in the coming quarters due to stronger-than-expected real wage growth, slowly falling unemployment, an increase in household lending, and the gradual easing of caution resulting from the economic downturn seen in previous years. At the same time, net exports developed much more favorably than expected at the beginning of the year, which is why this item may be another factor that can contribute positively to economic growth this year. As a result of all this, growth may continue to accelerate in the coming quarters.