Internal trade slowed down massively

By: Trademagazin Date: 2024. 11. 07. 11:24

This morning, the Central Statistical Office published retail sales data for the month of September: sales decreased significantly on a monthly basis, by 1.4 percent. The indicator of the consumption indicator, adjusted for the calendar effect, rose by 1.7 percent on an annual basis in the ninth month of this year, which substantially exceeded both our expectations and the consensus – János Nagy, macroeconomic analyst points out.

The sales of food stores increased by 1.5 percent and those of durable goods by 5.7 percent, but fuel turnover decreased by 5.0 percent compared to the same period of the previous year. The spike in food turnover in August was followed by a significant correction in September.

For the time being, the positive real wage dynamics, which are close to double digits, are an important driving force for spending, but at the same time, due to the weak domestic economy, wage growth may slow down significantly. The rate of expansion of retail trade is also limited by the prominence of the consumption of services. All in all, it can be said that household consumption – which was the main cause of the weak economic performance in 2023 – can make a substantial contribution to the economy this year and can also be a stable element of growth looking ahead, but at the same time, we do not expect the rates before the pandemic to last.