The GKI business climate index closed 2025 at a one and a half year high

By: Trademagazin Date: 2025. 12. 18. 08:06

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According to a survey by GKI Economic Research Ltd. – conducted with the support of the EU – the business sector and consumer outlook improved significantly in December compared to November. The summary indicator of the outlook, the GKI business cycle index, rose by almost 3 points to an eighteen-month high. At the same time, companies’ willingness to employ deteriorated slightly, and the overall expectation regarding the expected development of sales prices stagnated compared to the previous month. The responding companies considered the predictability of the business environment to be slightly deteriorating in the first winter month.

The GKI business confidence index – after the November plunge – increased by 2 points in December compared to the previous month. This is also an eighteen-month high. This month, the industrial confidence index increased significantly, by almost 4 points, while the trade and service sector indices remained practically unchanged, and the construction index decreased by almost 4 points. The industrial index was last this high in twenty-one months. Regarding the prospects for the near future, the construction industry remains the least optimistic, while business services are the most optimistic sector.

The employment indicator, which indicates the overall staffing expectations of enterprises, has decreased slightly compared to the previous survey after a two-month increase. 8% of enterprises are preparing to expand their workforce in the next three months, while 13% would reduce it. In industry and business services, those seeking to expand their workforce are in the majority, compared to those preparing for layoffs.

The predictability of the business environment deteriorated slightly in December compared to the previous survey. Industrial and construction companies continue to suffer the most from the lack of predictability, while trade and service companies are less bothered by it.

The price indicator, which shows the expected development of companies’ sales prices in the next three months, increased slightly in November compared to the previous survey, after three months of stagnation, and then this indicator barely changed in December. In the next three months, 29% of companies want to raise prices, while 9% are preparing to lower prices.

The GKI consumer confidence index increased significantly in December, by 5 points compared to the previous survey, reaching a two-year high. All sub-indexes showed a noticeable improvement: the assessment of the financial situation experienced in the past 12 months, the financial outlook for the next 12 months, the assessment of the country’s expected economic situation in the next 12 months, and the assessment of the amount of money that can be spent on high-value consumer goods all improved. The population’s inflation expectations decreased significantly, as did the outlook for the expected development of the number of unemployed.