Inflation will remain in 2024 as well

Although inflation reached decade-long highs in the first half of the year, as expected, a rapid slowdown came in the last months of the year. Based on the current outlook, the rate of price inflation may decrease further – roughly until April, which would mean an indicator looking back at twelve months of a little under 5 percent in the third or fourth month of the year. At the beginning of 2024, the increase in the excise tax on fuels will slow down the disinflation process. At the same time, among other things, the inflation of food and consumer durables may further slow down – Dávid Németh, Macroeconomic Analyst of the Year, K&H’s leading analyst, presented his forecast.

One of the most important questions for the next year is how the revival of domestic demand, including residential consumption, will affect prices. This results in inflationary pressure, which may prevent a further slowdown, so this indicator may remain at a level of around 5 percent in the second half of 2024.