Hungary also fits into the global commercial impact of Valentine’s Day

For the business sector, this means one thing: seasonal periods such as Valentine’s Day increase the number of payments, contracts and foreign exchange settlements. And where the volume of transactions increases, the importance of exchange rate risk automatically increases. The phenomenon is also strengthening globally. The National Retail Federation predicts that Valentine’s Day spending in the United States could reach $29.1 billion in 2026, with the average consumer spending nearly $200 per person. This shows that Valentine’s Day is increasingly becoming a full-fledged sales season, not just a casual holiday.

Valentine’s Day in Hungary – a seasonal test for corporate margins

In Hungary, Valentine’s Day is increasingly linked to the service and trade market. Gifts, cosmetics, perfumes, flowers, jewelry, hotel reservations or catering are often based on international supply chains and settlements in foreign currencies – mainly euros.

For companies, this means that as seasonal sales increase, so does FX exposure. Even seemingly minor exchange rate movements of 3–5% – with low margins – can “take away” a significant part of the profits generated. Thus, Valentine’s Day is not only a holiday for consumers, but also a practical test of companies’ financial management.

Foreign exchange market volatility in 2025 and early 2026 – a challenge for Hungarian companies too

2025 was a particularly volatile year on the foreign exchange market. The USD/EUR exchange rate fluctuated in a wide range throughout the year: at the beginning of the year, 1 USD was worth nearly EUR 0.97, while in the second half of the year it weakened to approximately EUR 0.84. This represents a change of 10–13% on an annual basis.

A similar mechanism was observed in the EUR/HUF currency pair. At the beginning of 2025, the euro exchange rate against the forint was around 380–385 HUF, while in January 2026 it was closer to 395–400 HUF. This represented an annual movement of approximately 4–5%. In the case of larger, seasonal contracts, even such a difference can cause additional costs of several thousand euros for importers and higher income for exporters – if the exchange rate is not secured in advance.

In practice, such volatility is not a theoretical issue. In the case of a contract worth 1 million euros, a few or even more than ten percent exchange rate changes can cause a difference in the result of tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands – without changing the price, volume or operating costs of the product. At the beginning of 2026, the market showed again that volatility does not disappear with the new year. The difference in the USD/EUR pair compared to the beginning of 2025 exceeded 10%: while at the beginning of 2025 1 USD was approximately 0.96–0.97 EUR, at the beginning of 2026 it was only 0.85–0.86 EUR. This means that the value of the same contract can differ significantly due to exchange rate effects – without changing the price of the product or service.

– says Jacek Jurczyński, CEO of Akcenta CZ.

For companies operating in multiple currencies, FX management in 2026 will no longer be an additional element, but part of margin protection. Forward transactions and conscious exchange rate control help ensure that seasonal opportunities such as Valentine’s Day actually increase profits, and do not reduce them unnoticed.

– In practice, even a few percent exchange rate movement can significantly affect the profitability of seasonal contracts, such as Valentine’s Day, in a short period of time. Therefore, the timing of the transaction and hedging the exchange rate are as important as the sale itself. During periods such as Valentine’s Day, Black Friday or holidays, companies conclude many more contracts and accept more payments in a short period of time. If the exchange rate works against the company at such times, even well-planned sales can bring weaker financial results – adds Jacek Jurczyński, CEO of Akcenta CZ.