Hungary’s economy in 2025: recovery from slowdown, weaker forint and the increasing importance of corporate strategic decisions 2026 will be a test of resilience

For companies, this represents an opportunity for medium-term planning, but does not mean a return to previous stability. The Hungarian business environment continues to be characterized by high annual volatility of the forint exchange rate, changes in financing costs and strong dependence on the foreign trade situation. In practice, this means that despite the improvement in macroeconomic data, business uncertainty remains an important factor in the daily operations of companies.

– With the fluctuating exchange rate of the forint against the EUR and USD, companies can no longer rely on the assumption of a “safe” exchange rate level in Hungary. Within a year, differences of 10–20 forints in the EUR/HUF exchange rate are not uncommon, and in the case of large export volumes, these movements directly affect the profitability of contracts and profit margins. Therefore, currency risk is no longer a purely financial issue, but becomes a purely operational risk. More and more companies are therefore using hedging instruments, such as forward transactions or active currency management.

– said Jacek Jurczynski, CEO of Akcenta CZ.

Inflation, which exceeded 25% in 2023, decreased drastically in 2024 and ranged between 3.5–4.5% in 2025, close to the MNB’s upper inflation target. Meanwhile, the labor market remained relatively tight – unemployment was moderate, and companies increasingly reported a shortage of skilled labor and wage pressures, especially in the industrial and technology sectors.

Exports remain a growth driver, but their structure limits profitability

The growth of the Hungarian economy is largely based on exports. According to data from Trading Economics and the Central Statistical Office, Hungarian merchandise exports remained at a high level in 2025 – for example, in September 2025 they amounted to around EUR 13.1 billion, while monthly export values ​​often exceeded EUR 12–13 billion during the year. Imports were also significant – in October 2025 they amounted to around EUR 12.13 billion, while exports reached around EUR 12.84 billion in the same month. The foreign trade balance remained positive, although the difference between exports and imports was relatively small.

The most important trading partners remain Germany, Romania, Poland, Italy and Slovakia, which together account for almost 46% of total exports. In 2024, the value of exports exceeded EUR 154 billion, which represents an annual increase of about 6% and an increase of more than 45% compared to 2020. In 2025, the structure of trade will continue to follow this trend.

However, a structural challenge is that a significant part of exports is based on the production of components and semi-finished products for foreign concerns, especially in the automotive and electronics sectors. Export volumes appear stable, but the bulk of value creation and profit margins continue to be generated outside the country’s borders. In this structure, even minor exchange rate fluctuations can affect the profitability of contracts, especially since margins are often fixed in advance, while costs are calculated in forints.

At the same time, diversification efforts are becoming clearer. Between 2020 and 2024, exports to Poland increased by more than 45%, and trade with Scandinavian countries, especially Norway, was particularly brisk in 2024. This trend will continue in 2025.

Forint exchange rate and MNB policy – a key factor for companies in 2025

The biggest difference compared to the Czech market remains the lower currency stability. While the Czech koruna has relatively low volatility, in 2025 the EUR/HUF exchange rate fluctuated between 370 and 395, responding to global factors and domestic monetary policy decisions. Importantly for companies, this volatility was not a one-off but rather spread over time. This means that periods of relative stability alternated with sudden exchange rate movements, which made financial planning difficult.

The Hungarian National Bank (MNB) launched an interest rate cut cycle in 2024, following its previously extremely tight policy. The key interest rate was reduced from 13% in 2023 to 6.5% by the end of 2024, while in 2025 the pace of easing was