International and domestic FMCG retail outlook: Tamás Kozák in the Chain Bridge Club

By: Barok Eszter Date: 2025. 03. 28. 12:39

At the February meeting of the Chain Bridge Club Tamás Kozák, secretary general of the National Trade Association (OKSZ) gave a comprehensive overview of international and domestic trends in the FMCG sector.

This article is available for reading in Trade magazin 2025/4.

Dr. Tamás Kozák
secretary general
National Trade
Association (OKSZ)

Retail volume sales in the EU dropped significantly in 2022-2023, according to Eurostat data, while growth in value terms continued – a phenomenon driven mainly by inflation. The shift in sales channels has been moderate, with hypermarkets and supermarkets holding their ground, while the mail order and e-commerce expansion has fallen short of expectations. Inflationary pressure has remained strong in Hungary.

The most pessimistic bloc

According to data from the Central Statistical Office (KSH), Hungarian retail sales volumes declined in 2023, in line with EU trends, while the value sales growth continued to be driven by inflation. Prices started to rise again after the price cap system was discontinued. At the same time consumer confidence continued to erode: according to Eurostat’s consumer confidence index, Hungary was one of the most pessimistic markets in Europe, leading to subdued spending and falling sales. In the FMCG sector demand took a dive in the second half of the year. Pricing is also influenced by supply chain margins: in grocery retail margins typically range between 2-5%, indicating that price hikes aren’t solely driven by the decisions of the retail chains.

Online momentum has come to a halt

Following the explosive growth during the COVID pandemic, the expansion of the online FMCG market slowed down considerably from 2021 onwards, with online FMCG penetration in Hungary remaining around 20% in recent years. In 2022 the share of online sales in total FMCG sales was 2.3% (significantly below the online shares in the electronics or fashion sectors: 40% and 35% respectively). While online basket values have increased – in 2019 the annual online FMCG spending per capita was HUF 44,000, rising to HUF 118,000 by 2022 – this mainly reflects the impact of inflation rather than a surge in consumer spending. In 2012 there were more than 45,000 grocery stores, but by 2023 this number decreased to 32,900, owing to changes in consumption habits and the conquest of e-commerce, plus because of the rising operating costs.

Pressure on the biggest players

In Hungarian retail trade profitability has reduced very much, especially among the big players. The profits of retailers with a sales turnover over HUF 100bn have melted away, and the retail tax and minimum wage increase are making the situation even more difficult. The outlook for the Hungarian retail sector is influenced by numerous uncertainties. Real income growth has started to pick up in 2024, but it remains to be seen whether this will translate into a consumption growth. Government forecasts predict a 3.5% GDP growth, but the sustainability of this is highly dependent on macroeconomic developments and consumer confidence. //