2026 begins in agriculture amid crises and a wave of investment – ​​banking focuses on the dairy and pig markets, as well as CAP investments

Dairy: Import pressure and a competitiveness stress test for domestic processing

According to Dávid Hollósi (MBH Bank), the most severe problem is on the dairy product chain: a substantial surplus is flowing into Hungary from Western Europe. In certain categories—some cheeses were cited—import volumes have increased by 30–60%. He linked the situation to the combination of a tariff-war environment, EU overproduction and “stuck” inventories.

Hollósi also framed the current market as a direct competitiveness test for Hungarian processing: when competition intensifies, structural disadvantages become immediately visible in what is fundamentally a volume-driven business. In his view, the dairy market is unlikely to stabilize before summer.

Pig market: Tariff-war exposure and a downside scenario tied to Spain’s animal health status

Hollósi sees similar, trade-driven risks in pig production, though he expects a faster normalization than in dairy. He highlighted Spain’s animal health situation as a key risk: if African swine fever were to appear in Aragón (one of the largest pig-producing regions), third-country export restrictions could leave large volumes within the EU market—some of which could end up in Hungary as well.

From OTP’s side, István Szabó (OTP Agrár) said he would expect a rebound in the pig sector around Easter, while the dairy market may need longer—potentially May–June—to move beyond the current low-price period. K&H’s Zoltán Demeter added that at the start of 2026 both raw milk and pigs are priced below cost, meaning production is loss-making, and he expects price normalization to come only in the first or second quarter.

Crop farming: Rainfall risk and a possible shift in the planting mix

In arable farming, rainfall remains the decisive variable. Hollósi explicitly warned that anyone planning to sow maize on the Great Plain without irrigation should think twice. Szabó added a structural expectation for 2026: maize acreage could fall further, and this could be the first year when sunflower area potentially overtakes maize, depending on weather outcomes in spring and summer.

Banking priorities: Rolling crisis facilities and scaling CAP-backed investment finance

On working-capital finance, MBH pointed to a major operational issue for 2026: the renewal of Agrár Széchenyi Card facilities originally contracted three years ago under crisis frameworks. Renewals will not be automatic; banks will reassess client financials and sector risk to avoid turning extensions into “loss financing.”

On investment finance, all three banks see the CAP Strategic Plan (KAP ST) pipeline as the main engine. Szabó spoke about a potential HUF 1,000 billion increase in sector loan stock over the coming period and noted expectations that by April roughly 80–85% of subsidy award documents could be delivered; he referenced a total framework of around HUF 1,500 billion.

Demeter said K&H already has interest-subsidized products ready, with contracts in place and subsidy decisions arriving. Based on current indications, he expects spring to bring the key decisions that can unlock projects across livestock, food processing, greenhouses, irrigation, horticulture and storage. At the same time, he flagged a practical split: larger players may proceed regardless of low prices, while small and mid-sized operators may delay until market conditions improve.