The latest VOSZ Barometer is out – Despite the macro numbers, VOSZ member companies are optimistic

By: Trademagazin Date: 2025. 10. 16. 14:30
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Compared to macroeconomic indicators, the mood of domestic SMEs is surprisingly optimistic – this can be read from the latest figures of the VOSZ Barometer survey for the third quarter. According to the research, which reflects the business mood, investment willingness and financial situation of VOSZ member SMEs on a quarterly basis, the main indicator of the Barometer (50%) did not change compared to the previous quarter, while two of its three sub-indices (the indicator measuring investment willingness and the financial situation) decreased by 1 percentage point, and the indicator reflecting business mood increased by 2 percentage points compared to the data of the second quarter.

Dr. Ákos Kozák

During the background discussion presenting the numbers of the recent survey, Ákos Kozák, co-chairman of VOSZ, co-founder and director of business relations of the Balance Institute, which commissioned the research, began his presentation with a macroeconomic overview. According to the Balance Institute’s forecast, the domestic GDP will expand by 0.3% this year, while inflation will be 4.5%. “The domestic economy is currently strongly based on consumption. If household consumption did not increase by more than 3% this year, the decline in industrial production and investment would not be compensated. Thanks to household consumption, the GDP growth rate will be able to rise just above 0% this year,” said the expert.

In light of such a macroeconomic background, many indicators of the survey surprisingly reflect the relatively optimistic mood of businesses. “It is a question of whether we believe our eyes or the numbers,” said Ákos Kozák in this regard. “Despite the macroeconomic fundamentals, domestic SMEs have not fallen into lethargy, it is as if they have priced in the prospects for 2025,” he noted.

As for the main indicator of the Barometer, its value remained at 50%, similar to the previous quarter, although this represents a 2 percentage point decrease compared to the same period last year. Among the main problems related to the country’s economic situation, the surveyed businesses named high tax burdens, inflation and the decline in purchasing power. Among the problems related to everyday business, the issue of payment morality is the most striking. In relation to their own business, businesses mention the main risk as loss-making operations due to the lack of orders.

Business sentiment

The subindex reflecting business sentiment increased to 58%, which is 2 percentage points higher than the previous quarter. Perceptions of both the economic situation and the short- and long-term prospects of businesses have become more optimistic compared to the previous quarter. “It is as if there is a kind of obligatory optimism among entrepreneurs, that the next quarter or year may be better. Even though they feel that demand is weak, they are rather optimistic about the future,” explained the VOSZ co-chair. In this regard, he highlighted that the proportion of those who perceive the economic situation pessimistically has decreased significantly, falling to an unprecedented low since the beginning of the measurement. “Compared to the fact that we see such data in the macroeconomics, these numbers indicating entrepreneurial sentiment are not so bad,” he added. According to Ákos Kozák, the news from the German economy indicating a recovery may have provided a basis for the improvement in business sentiment.

László Perlusz, Secretary General of the Hungarian Confederation of Employers and Entrepreneurs, highlighted the business sentiment: businesses believe that they will slowly overcome this difficult year and are looking ahead. “They did not ride the trend that everything will get worse, but tried to find a way to survive,” he added.

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