K&H: can the long-awaited breakthrough finally come?

The current improving trend in the economic expectations of domestic large companies may break the negative mood that has lasted for more than two years. Based on the research data of the last quarter of the K&H Large Company Growth Index 2025, the upward trend has continued, and the indicator is currently at -3 points, which is close to the neutral value. This value is composed of data from the large company and macro sub-indexes; the former shows the expectations of companies regarding their own economic prospects, the latter reflects the effects of macro factors from a larger perspective. The large corporate sub-index is currently at 0 points with a 1-point improvement, but the macro sub-index influenced by major economic events and foreign economic factors is also showing an improving trend: with a 6-point improvement, it is currently at -11 points.

“We are seeing a welcome improvement in the expectations of large corporations: the factors that contribute to the stabilization of the domestic economy are clearly affecting large corporate decision-makers.  At K&H, we are working to help them achieve their growth goals with our innovative product and service portfolio, for which the economic situation now provides a good basis, especially if this trend can continue in the coming period”

– Tibor Bodor, head of K&H’s large corporate division, assessed the data.

Improving financial situation

The figures show that large companies are expecting an improving situation in terms of both sales and profits: company managers expect an average 1.3 percentage point higher sales growth compared to the current level in a year. Based on the categories by sales, more than a quarter (28%) of the smallest companies with sales of 2-4 billion (HUF) expect an increase, while exactly a quarter of those in the medium category (HUF 4-10 billion) expect the same. The largest companies with sales exceeding 10 billion are the least optimistic; only 8 percent of managers plan an increase. At the same time, this group is also the least likely to expect a decrease: only 3 percent of those surveyed, compared to 10 percent in the entire sample. “Compared to the last quarter, it is interesting that industry has taken off in terms of sector breakdown – the large ones have started to feel the indirect effect of the 3 percent loans available since October. The second area of ​​attraction is the service sector, and trade – although it also shows an increasing trend – is the third in line,” the expert added.

We cannot speak of any substantive changes in terms of profits, but a slight decrease can be seen in the pessimism of large companies: although company managers continue to calculate with decreasing profit expectations, the average level of their expectations has improved numerically by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. By company size, the largest ones have settled for stagnation, 94 percent of them do not expect any change, and the ratio of reports of deteriorating and improving expectations is 3 percent each. Medium and small companies move more or less together, with the difference that among companies with sales between 2-4 billion, the proportion of executives reporting declining profit expectations is higher. In terms of sectors, service providers push up the average, followed by industry, and the trade sector is third.