Next year less coffee on the market

In 2009 the world coffee market will swing to a deficit of up to 10 million bags in 2009, as demand outstrips production, according to The National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia.

 The Federation added that it estimates
that global coffee production will exceed demand by 6-7 million bags
in 2008, as Brazil (the world’s largest producer) is in the more
productive phase of a two-year cycle. However, as it completes the
cycle, the lower output next year will cause the shortfall.
The
Federation noted, “Overall consumption is growing faster than
production, and global inventories will decrease further next year.
Growth is not coming from mature markets but from emerging markets”.
Commenting on the financial crisis, it added, “The credit crunch
limits the availability to exporters and cooperatives of working
capital. We might see problems in coffee supply if it persists”.

In Colombia itself, the Federation expects coffee output to fall
to 12.1-12.2 million bags this year, from 12.6 million bags last
year, due to heavy rains. Next year, it expects a similar level of
production – very close to 12 million bags. The country will export
11.5 million bags this year, up 3.6% year-on-year, but this figure
will fall to 11 million bags next year.