GKI expects Euro’s exchange rate to be at 260 Forints next year

According to a forecast by GKI Gazdaságkutató Zrt. and Erste Bank, the Hungarian economy hit rock bottom in autumn 2009 and in the 4th quarter a modest growth is expected. Our external balance is improving significantly and the internal balance meets international requirements. In 2010, Hungary’s net foreign debt will shrink and the budget deficit will be one of the most favourable in Europe. Hungarian economy will stagnate in 2010, with the building and construction sector developing the fastest at 6 percent. Industry will grow by 2-3 percent, agriculture and service are expected to stagnate. Consumption will not change significantly, gross wages will improve by 1 percent, but net wages will be 7-7.5 percent higher, resulting in an approximately 3-percent rise in real wages. Loans will be more easily available and net savings will stay around 5 percent points. The rate of unemployment will be 9.8 percent, just like this year. Forint’s exchange rate will stay around HUF 270/ Euro in the first half of 2010, but it might gain strength in the second six months at HUF 260/Euro. Central bank base rate may be cut further.