Consumption is growing rapidly this year too

GKI Economic Research Zrt. has increased its growth forecast from 3.8 percent to 4 percent for 2018. In March the growth in industrial production slowed down: while in the first two months it had been 5.4 percent, the third months brought a 2.4 percent slower growth rate in comparison with March 2017. Retail sales were expanding 1.5 percentage points faster, by 8.5 percent in March than in the first two months. This year consumption is expected to grow by 4-4.5 percent. Gross salary increase is predicted to be around 7 percent in 2018.

In one year the unemployment rate reduced by 0.7 percentage point to 3.9 percent. However, if we would categorise public workers as unemployed, the rate would be 7.4 percent, higher than the EU’s average. By April inflation speeded up to 2.3 percent – the average of the first four months was 2.1 percent. Food prices grew above the average and motor fuel prices started to rise in April – it is around HUF 400/litre at the moment. The inflation rate in 2018 is predicted to be around 3 percent. The weakening of the forint was likely, but its sudden and rapid occurrence is mainly the result of the spreading of the shaken trust in Turkey. //

Attila Udvardi
head of research
GKI