After three months of increase, the GKI Business Index corrected back in November

By: Trademagazin Date: 2025. 11. 27. 12:13

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According to a survey by GKI Economic Research Ltd. – conducted with the support of the EU – the business sector’s outlook barely changed in November, while consumers expressed slightly more pessimistic expectations than in October. The summary indicator of the outlook, the GKI business cycle index, decreased by just 1 point, which is a change within the margin of error. Companies’ willingness to employ improved further, while the overall expectation regarding the expected development of sales prices increased compared to the previous month. The responding companies did not perceive any change in the predictability of the business environment in the last autumn month.

The GKI business confidence index – after three months of increase – decreased within the margin of error in November compared to October. Therefore, industry was solely responsible for the slight decrease, as the confidence index of this sector decreased by 2 points, while the construction index did not change, while the trade and service sector indices increased by 2 points each. The trade index has not been this high for fourteen months, while the service sector index has not been this high for thirteen months. Regarding the near future, the construction industry remains the least optimistic sector, while business services are the most optimistic.

The employment indicator, which indicates the aggregated headcount management expectations of enterprises, rose significantly compared to the previous survey, reaching a one-year high. In the next three months, 8% of enterprises are preparing to expand their workforce, while 12% would reduce it.

The predictability of the business environment did not change significantly in November compared to the previous survey. Industrial and construction companies continue to suffer the most from the lack of predictability, while retail and service companies are less bothered by it.

The price indicator, which shows the expected development of companies’ sales prices in the next three months, rose slightly in November compared to the previous survey after three months of stagnation. In the next three months, 26% of companies want to raise prices, while 8% are preparing to reduce prices. A month ago, the same two proportions were 19 and 8%.

The GKI consumer confidence index reached a fourteen-month high in October. However, a negative correction followed in November: the index decreased by almost 2 points on a monthly basis. The assessment of the financial situation experienced in the past 12 months has noticeably deteriorated, and the financial outlook for the next 12 months has slightly deteriorated compared to October. The assessment of the country’s expected economic situation in the next 12 months improved slightly further. The assessment of the amount of money that can be spent on high-value consumer goods did not change. There was no change in the population’s inflation expectations, while the outlook for the expected development of the number of unemployed people improved significantly.