GKI forecasts – looking forward to the nadir

According to the joint forecast of GKI Economic Research Institute and Erste Bank the nadir of the economic downturn is still ahead of the Hungarians. The national GDP expected to decrease by 6.5% this year.

The biggest losses are in agriculture and in the export-sensitive industries. In the second half  will bring stronger forint, but faster inflation.
The real incomes of the first five months decreased by 2.2 percent. A 2.5 percent reduction is expected for the whole year. Unemployment rate can increase to 10.5 percent for the end of the year.
For the second half of 2009, because of the VAT and excise tax increase, consumer price index can also increase. An annual rate of 5 percent in prices can be expected.