How is Hungary’s demographic decline transforming retail?

By: Trademagazin editor Date: 2025. 12. 04. 22:21

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Hungary’s population is slowly but steadily shrinking and this process is reshaping not only the structure of society, but also storefronts. According to data from the Central Statistical Office (KSH), at the beginning of 2024 the country’s population was only 9.58 million – roughly half a million less than twenty years earlier. By 2024 the rate of urbanisation grew to 72%, meaning that seven out of ten Hungarians live in cities.

This article is available for reading in Trade magazin 2025/12-2026.01

Guest writer:
Dr. Tamás Kozák
secretary general
OKSZ

Transforming retail

The population decline has had a direct influence on retail trade. Fewer residents means fewer customers, which results in lower turnover, lower revenues and fewer opportunities. As a result, since 2001 the number of shops in Hungary has decreased by more than 34%, while the population has reduced by “only” 6%. Thos process is particularly visible in the counties of Vas, Zala, Baranya, Somogy, Nógrád and Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén, where the number of stores has dropped 40%. The transformation of the settlement structure hasn’t only changed the number of stores, but also shopping habits. Younger generations moving to cities prefer online shopping and modern stores with a large floor space. In contrast, small village shops are struggling not only with a lack of demand, but also with workforce shortage and higher unit costs. Between 2013 and 2023 the average floor space of retail outlets increased from 122m² to 163m².

What can we expect until 2030?

According to the forecast, no radical change can be expected in the coming years. Based on KSH’s projection, the country’s population is likely to be around 9.4 million by 2030, while the number of retail stores may reduce from the current level of just under 100,000 to between 85,000 and 88,000. Population decline and spatial restructuring, urban concentration, the rise of e-commerce and rural store closures all point to a future in which fewer but larger, more efficient and more digital retail units will serve consumers. Half of grocery retail is still carried out by stores belonging to Hungarian chains, smaller chains or independent market players, and modernising their operations is a task of paramount importance in terms of supply security and prices. However, we are on the wrong track if we try to support the small players by hindering the development of the large ones, because this doesn’t lead to an increase in overall performance, but rather prevents us all from benefiting from the positive effects of development.