Fidelity International: softer landing is likely

By: Trademagazin editor Date: 2024. 05. 30. 17:55

When the fourth quarter of 2023 was approaching, fund manager Fidelity opined the most likely scenario for 2024 was a cyclical recession, with a moderate economic contraction followed by a return to growth. At the beginning of 2024 and now, three months later, markets have turned more positive.

A cikk a Trade magazin 2024/6-7. lapszámában olvasható.

“We continue to judge the outlook through the lens of different scenarios: we keep a close eye on the key economic indicators and the insights of our research/analytical staff on the ground. They report that the economies are holding up, which has led us to take more risks”,

says István Al-Hilal, head of Central and Eastern Europe at Fidelity International.

Fidelity called our attention to the following three issues at the start of Q2 2024:

1. Softer landing: inflation has fallen over the year and markets have proved resilient. These are good signs, as they suggest that economies will remain relatively healthy in the coming months.

2. China – stabilisation instead of acceleration: China is preparing for a “controlled stabilisation” of its economy as it tries to weather the housing slump and seeks to shift the balance away from debt-fuelled growth towards consumption and high-end manufacturing.

3. Where are the risks? There is an increasing chance that there will be no landing and with it a growing risk that interest rates won’t fall as many had hoped. The risk of a recession hasn’t disappeared completely either. //