Analysis: the central bank base rate rose to 13%, the cycle of interest rate hikes is over

By: Trademagazin Date: 2022. 09. 27. 11:32

The central bank base rate rose to 13% more than expected from the previous 11.75%, the Monetary Council also raised the overnight deposit interest rate to 12.50% and the one-day and one-week secured loan interest rate to 15.50% . The MNB is also expected to raise the one-week deposit interest rate to 13% in Thursday’s tender.

The rate hike cycle is over

Recently, the forint came close to its historical low against the euro, despite the fact that the pace and severity of interest rate hikes in the recent period shows a “commitment” against inflation that is almost unique in the world. Although the domestic real interest rate is still negative, in regional and international comparisons, its level shows a particularly restrained level. The exchange rate of the forint is currently not primarily driven by the interest rate, the evolution of gas prices plays a much more significant role, which significantly worsens the equilibrium and growth prospects, the strengthening of the dollar, global risk aversion and the uncertainties of the EU embargo and resource payment disputes.