Retail sales in a trap of uncertainty
Retail turnover cannot break out of the uncertainty trap. Even though real wages increased by nearly 6 percent, household consumption expenditures fell significantly short of this. The discrepancy between potential and actual consumption is most strongly explained by the lack of household confidence.
Despite the extension and expansion of the margin freeze, the growth in the volume of food retail turnover still remained below the dynamics of a year ago. The consumer price of food is rising at a rate of below 5 percent, and this group of goods is pulling down inflation, so the existence of the margin freeze can no longer be justified by any economic rationality.
Not even a serious Christmas shopping spree can turn this year around for retail – and not just for the largest retail chains, but for the entire Hungarian retail sector in general. The growth in turnover is falling short of expectations in all segments, and the seasonal upturn of the last two months cannot compensate for this. Last year, the year-end shopping spree was also small, but we hope that customers will be able to spend more on the holidays this year. Retail is preparing for the holiday rush with traditionally good promotions, despite the fact that the margin freeze and other burdens imposed on it make this very difficult.
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