The GKI business climate index barely changed in December

By: Trademagazin Date: 2024. 12. 19. 13:12

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According to a survey by GKI Economic Research Ltd. – supported by the EU – the business sector’s outlook deteriorated further in December, but consumers became slightly more optimistic. The GKI business sentiment index fell in small steps but essentially continuously in the second half of this year, thus slipping to an 18-month low by December. Companies’ employment plans did not change significantly compared to November, but the predictability of the economic environment deteriorated significantly. The business sector’s price increase plans increased significantly, and the population’s inflation expectations increased slightly compared to the previous month.

The GKI business confidence index decreased by 1 point in December compared to November. This was enough for this indicator to sink to a 39-month low. The industrial confidence index fell by 2 points compared to the previous survey, while the indices measured in the construction industry, as well as in the trade and business service sectors, changed only within the margin of error. Trade remains the least optimistic sector and business services the most optimistic.

The aggregate employment willingness of enterprises did not change significantly compared to November – employment intentions strengthened in industry and services, while they weakened in construction and trade. The assessment of the predictability of the economic environment deteriorated significantly in December after November, and this indicator fell to a 24-month low.

The aggregate price increase plans of the business sector increased noticeably compared to the previous month, so this indicator rose to a two-year high. The change in trade over the month was relatively mild, while the price increase plans of industrial and construction producers and service providers jumped significantly.

In December – after three months of decline – the GKI consumer confidence index was finally able to increase by 2 points compared to the previous month. The assessment of the financial situation experienced in the past 12 months and the outlook for the next 12 months also improved compared to November. In addition, expectations regarding the country’s economic situation over the next year also became more favorable. However, the assessment of one’s own money that can be spent on high-value consumer goods deteriorated somewhat. The population’s inflation expectations rose slightly further, while those regarding unemployment remained unchanged.