Export rates growing, import growth figures slowing down

Hungary’s export rates of agrarian products have been on the rise since our EU accession, and this tendency is continuing. Although the forecast for the growth of export rates was higher than the actual figures for the first months of the year, the 8.5% growth reached is still a good result, and export figures are expected to grow further in the second half of the year as well. There is a very large stock of intervention grain that is waiting for new export opportunities. While import is increasing too, its dynamics of growth is rather negative than positive.
Hungary’s export numbers exceeded EUR 1.6 billion in the first half of 2006. Import has remained under EUR 1.3 billion, despite the 13% growth. The balance is thus more than EUR 330 million, it is, however, shrinking. In March the import surplus was already higher than the increase in export turnover.
88% of export in the first half of 2006 was given by products such as food, beverages, tobacco – products belonging exclusively to the category of highly processed goods. 92.5% of these products went to the European markets, two third of which was sold within the EU, and the rest in non-EU markets of the continent. There is no significant shift, market concentration seems to increase rather than diversify. Hungary’s import concentrates strongly on the EU as well, 90% of our import of food and agrarian products come from within the Union, and 95.3% of Hungary’s import arrives from the European continent. An explanation for this surprising and unrealistic number is the INTRASTAT system of the EU, where in foreign trade statistics the “state of origin” is exchanged for the term “sending state”, thus leaving the actual country of production unknown.
Our export within the EU grew with a high pace (13.4%) compared to the average export in the first half of 2006. 73.6 % of Hungary’s export turnover came from the EU-15 countries, while 26.4% from countries that joined the EU in 2004. Our export outside the EU grew by 10%. Our export towards the American continent is barely above EUR 12 million, and is declining, while export to Africa and Asia is growing dynamically.
Hungary’s import in food, beverages and tobacco increased by 15%. Within the EU-25 the growth of import is 16%, while it is 22% for the EU-10. Among those EU-member states that have traditionally been significant importers to Hungary the following have increased their import figures: Austria (39%), Germany and Italy (+21% each) France (+18%) and the Netherlands (+1.4%). In the first half of the year they provided us with 60% of total import. Also, Belgium and Great Britain boosted import, to EUR 35 million and over EUR 25 million respectively. From the new EU countries Poland and Slovakia shipped more goods to Hungary than earlier, while the Czech, Spanish, Swedish, Danish and Irish import figures dropped. The most outstanding example of import boost within the EU is Slovenia and Portugal, since they both multiplied imports compared to the corresponding data of 2006: Slovenia from EUR 4.3 million to EUR 17.5 million, while Portugal from EUR 600 thousand to EUR 1.3 million. The falling import figures characterizing non EU-countries do not reflect reality because of the above mentioned methodological change in EU foreign trade statistics, the INTRASTAT system.
While our trade balance is negative for the EU-25 regarding the mentioned lot of goods, we have a significant export surplus for non-EU countries. Within the EU in the first five months of 2006 we had a narrowing, but active balance in relation to the old member states, still, in the first half we became net importers here as well. Our foreign trade balance is increasingly steady in relation to the EU-10.
The realignment of our export market is continuing. Export figures in the first quarter were the following: 40% for food, beverages, and tobacco, 30% for vegetables, 26% for live animals and animal products, 4% for oils and fat. The ratio of food, beverages, tobacco, live animals and animal products is growing, while the same is decreasing for vegetables, oils and fat.
The most popular export products are meat and processed meat-products, with EUR 288 million. Second are grain and grain products with EUR 275 million, while fruit and vegetables rank third with EUR 244 million. These three product groups gave 56% of the agrarian export of Hungary in the first half of the year. Regarding import the most significant role is played by food, beverages and tobacco, since these products give half of our import. Second are live animals and animal products (22%).