BNP Paribas Cardif: we are more worried about job losses than a year ago

In the survey conducted in the last quarter of last year, the BNP Paribas Cardif Labor Market Stability Index recorded a value of 74 points, which is a two-point decline compared to the same period of the previous year. The downward trend was largely contributed by the significant drop in the sub-indicator, which examines employees’ expectations regarding how easily they would find a new job that matches their qualifications in the event of a job loss, from 65 to 60 points compared to the last quarter of 2024. A change can also be observed at the level of the partial results: in one year, the proportion of those who believe that it would be difficult or very difficult for them to find a new job under such conditions increased from 16 to 22%, while at the same time, the proportion of those who believe that it would be easy or very easy for them to find a new, “suitable” job decreased from 57 to 50%.

The survey results also show that the indicator that measures employees’ attitude towards how secure they feel their current position within the given company decreased by 2 points compared to the same period of the previous year, falling to 75.  According to the relevant partial data, 56% of respondents believe that their current position will definitely remain for at least five years, which represents a decrease of 1 percentage point compared to the same period of the previous year, while at the same time increasing by 2 percentage points The proportion of those who believe this period is a maximum of 4-5 years has increased to 12%.

At the same time, the indicator that examines respondents’ perception of the continuation of their current job, regardless of their assessment of their own position, has now again reached 87 points, in line with the same period last year. The partial results show, among other things, that nearly three-quarters (73%) of the interviewees believed that the company they work for would definitely remain in place for more than five years, which represents an increase of 1 percentage point in one year.

“Compared to the end of last year, respondents feel their current position is somewhat more at risk and have become more pessimistic about the success of a possible job change” – said Márk István Kiss. According to the CEO of BNP Paribas Cardif in Hungary, this employee sentiment primarily encourages those affected to keep their current jobs and results in decreasing labor market mobility.

Information about the BNP Paribas Cardif Labor Market Stability Index

BNP Paribas Cardif Insurance created the index in 2014 together with Medián. It was created to measure: how stable the labor market is from the perspective of employees, i.e. how confident employees are that their current job will provide them with long-term employment opportunities, what steps they would take to keep their job if it were threatened, and how easily they feel they would find a new job. The index is based on a personal survey of 1,200 people. The sample represents the adult Hungarian population by age, gender, educational level and settlement type.

First, a baseline survey was conducted, within the framework of which 13 relevant questions were asked to a nationally representative sample, in the following three dimensions:

– Job security

– Potential efforts to keep their job

– Complexity of finding a new job

The 7 questions most suitable for index formation were selected through statistical analysis. The higher the index calculated based on these 7 questions, the employees:

– the more confident they are that their workplace can provide them with suitable employment opportunities in the long term

– the more stable they feel their own position at their workplace

– the more they would do everything they could to keep their job if it were to be in danger

– the easier they consider it to be to find a new job opportunity

Comparison with data measured in the same period of the previous year better highlights trend-like changes and does not mislead them about possible changes.