Rising oil and gas prices could increase inflationary pressures in energy-importing countries, including Hungary

In the coming months, the commodity market will remain the most important risk factor for inflation and exchange rates. If the increase in oil and gas prices remains persistent, inflationary pressures may increase in energy importing countries, including Hungary. The forint may then show greater fluctuations against the dollar, while movements against the euro may remain relatively smaller.

Market data clearly shows that despite the recent geopolitical impulse, the forint is behaving relatively stably against major currencies. The USD/HUF pair fluctuated around ~318–319 HUF/USD in late February and early March 2026, without any dramatic depreciation, and the market average rates also show this level in recent sessions. The EUR/HUF was around 376–380 HUF/EUR, indicating limited volatility despite macroeconomic uncertainty.

– The exchange rates show that the forint did not show significant fluctuations in the first days following the escalation of the conflict. Its volatility was moderate, remaining within the normal range. The stability of the currency is supported by two factors: the relatively high interest rates of the Hungarian National Bank, which make investing in the forint attractive, and the positive foreign trade balance, which ensures capital inflows into the country. Nevertheless, in the short term, the forint may react to sudden risk-aversion impulses, similar to other emerging market currencies

– points out Jacek Jurczynski, CEO of Akcenta.

Hungary’s economy is closely linked to EU markets, especially Germany, which is one of its largest trading partners. High energy prices on the partners’ side may reduce demand for Hungarian goods and act as a slowdown factor for exports. At the same time, the increase in raw material and fuel costs directly affects imported inflation and cost pressures in the country. This pressure is also indirectly related to movements in other countries in the region. For example, in Poland, the zloty was under exchange rate pressure during a similar period, which may affect financing costs and the competitiveness of industrial products exported from Central Europe. In contrast to Poland, where the Monetary Council is considering a rate cut, the Hungarian National Bank is pursuing a tighter monetary policy. This differential provides further support for the forint against the dollar and the euro, although it remains dependent on global risk perceptions and investor sentiment.

Short- and long-term outlook for Hungary

In the coming months, the commodity market will remain the most important risk factor for inflation and exchange rates. If the rise in oil and gas prices remains sustained, inflationary pressures in energy-importing countries, including Hungary, could increase. The forint could then show greater fluctuations against the dollar, while movements against the euro could remain relatively smaller, provided that the MNB’s policy remains stable and global conditions do not lead to capital outflows from the region. In the long term, the impact of the current conflict will depend on how the situation in the Middle East develops and whether there will be permanent disruptions in energy supplies. If oil trade returns to normal flows through de-escalation or alternative export channels, the geopolitical premium in commodity prices may gradually decrease. This, in turn, may act as a stabilizing factor for inflation, including in the region’s currencies, including the HUF.