OECD slightly downgrades global GDP growth forecast for this year and next

The Paris-based organization said on Tuesday that global GDP growth will be 2.9 percent this year, down from 3.1 percent in March, and revised its forecast for next year to 2.9 percent from 3 percent. The global economy grew by 3.3 percent last year.

The report, posted on the OECD website, said, among other things, that “recent months have seen a significant increase in trade barriers and economic and trade policy uncertainty. This increase in uncertainty is weighing on business and consumer confidence and is likely to constrain trade and investment.”

According to the report’s authors, the deteriorating economic outlook will be felt worldwide without exception, and the slowing growth rates and the decline in trade activity will affect household incomes and slow down employment growth.

As in March, the OECD continues to expect inflation to slow to central bank targets in most countries next year. The OECD forecasts inflation of 3.6 percent this year and 3.2 percent next year in the G20 countries. The March forecast included 3.8 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively.

Inflation in OECD countries is expected to be 4.1 percent this year and 3.2 percent next year.

According to the report, Hungary’s economic growth will be 0.9 percent this year and 2.4 percent next year, after 0.5 percent last year.

According to the report, real wage growth will be the main driving force behind the expansion of private consumption in Hungary, partly already this year. Private consumption will expand by 5.1 percent this year and 5.4 percent in 2026, after a 1 percent decline last year. Exports of goods and services will shrink by 0.4 percent this year after a 3 percent decline last year, and grow by 2.4 percent next year. Imports will expand by 1.2 percent this year and 4.1 percent next year, after a 4 percent decline last year.
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