The IMF has marginally improved its global growth forecast for this year

The IMF improved its growth forecast for developed countries for this year and left it unchanged for next year compared to its October estimate. Growth in the region is expected to be 1.8 percent this year, 0.2 percentage points higher than the autumn forecast, and unchanged at 1.7 percent in 2027. The economy of the country group grew by 1.7 percent in 2025.

The IMF improved its GDP growth outlook for the United States this year by 0.3 percentage points to 2.4 percent, after GDP grew by 2.1 percent last year. The Washington-based organization expects growth of 2 percent next year, 0.1 percentage points lower than last October.

After GDP growth of 1.4 percent last year in the euro area, the IMF expects growth of 1.3 percent this year, 0.1 percentage points higher than expected in the autumn, and 1.4 percent growth in 2027, which is in line with the autumn estimate.

The IMF improved Germany’s growth forecast for this year by 0.2 percentage points to 1.1 percent, and kept next year’s expected growth rate at 1.5 percent. German GDP grew by 0.2 percent last year.

The IMF expects 4.2 percent growth in developing countries this year and 4.1 percent next year. It improved its forecast for this year by 0.2 percentage points and lowered its forecast for next year by 0.1 percentage points, in line with its October forecast. The country group’s GDP expanded by 4.4 percent last year.

After growing by 7.3 percent last year, India’s economy will expand by 6.4 percent this year and next year. The IMF revised its forecast for this year down by 0.2 percentage points compared to October, and left its estimate for next year unchanged.

After growing by 0.6 percent last year, Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 0.8 percent this year and by 1 percent in 2027, according to the IMF. Compared to the October forecast, the report’s compilers have lowered this year’s figure by 0.2 percentage points and next year’s by 0.1 percentage points.

World trade grew by 4.1 percent last year, and according to the IMF’s forecast, it will expand by 2.6 percent this year and 3.1 percent next year. The IMF raised this year’s figure by 0.3 percentage points compared to October, while it did not change the expected figure for next year.

The simple arithmetic average of the prices of Brent, Dubai Fateh and American WTI crude oil is expected to be $62.13 this year and $62.17 next year. The price of crude oil will fall by 8.5 percent this year compared to last year, and is expected to increase by 0.1 percent next year.

Global inflation will decrease from 4.1 percent last year to 3.8 percent this year and 3.4 percent next year, according to the latest forecast released on Monday. Compared to the autumn forecast, the IMF raised its inflation forecast for this year by 0.1 percentage points, and left it unchanged for next year.

In developed countries, the IMF expects inflation of 2.2 percent this year and 2.1 percent next year, after 2.5 percent last year. The latest forecast is in line with the autumn forecast. The IMF expects inflation to be 1.9 percent this year and 2 percent next year in the eurozone, 2.4 percent this year and 2.2 percent next year in the United States, and 2.3 percent this year and 2.1 percent next year in Japan.

Inflation in developing countries is slowing from 5.2 percent last year to 4.8 percent this year and 4.3 percent next year, according to the International Monetary Fund’s report released on Monday. It raised both this year’s and next year’s figures by 0.1 percentage points compared to the IMF’s October estimate.