Akcenta’s commentary on the MNB’s decision

By: Trademagazin Date: 2025. 11. 19. 11:19

🎧 Hallgasd a cikket: Nyelv: Sebesség: 1.05×

Today’s decision by the Hungarian National Bank (MNB) to leave the key interest rates unchanged – the base rate at 6.50%, the overnight deposit rate at 5.50%, and the overnight lending rate at 7.50% – signals the continuation of a tight monetary policy. According to the central bank’s assessment, the condition for achieving the 3% inflation target in the long term is foreign exchange market stability and ensuring positive real interest rates. This is an important message for companies operating in foreign trade, including AKCENTA’s clients, who continue to face increased market volatility.

For companies trading with Hungarian partners and settling in forints, the current macroeconomic environment has two key consequences. On the one hand, the continuation of the tight interest rate policy strengthens the MNB’s arguments in favor of the stability of the forint exchange rate, which has been strengthening since the beginning of the year. This also creates an opportunity for importers, who can obtain more favorable purchasing conditions thanks to the stronger forint. On the other hand, risks related to the pace of disinflation, the fiscal situation (the 5% GDP deficit target postponed to 2025-2026) and global sentiment may increase foreign exchange market volatility in the coming months – even if the medium-term trend may remain favorable for the forint. We are seeing a clear growing interest among our clients – especially exporters – in hedging exchange rate risks, therefore in such an environment companies should pay particular attention to managing their exposure, including through hedging transactions such as forwards and by diversifying payment terms.

– said Jacek Jurczynski, CEO of Akcenta CZ.

The MNB draws attention to the fact that despite the slight improvement in the global growth outlook, geopolitical risks, trade tensions and high price dynamics of services continue to weigh on the external inflationary environment. Monetary policy in the Central and Eastern European region remains mixed – some central banks are cautious or playing a wait-and-see approach. This means that regional factors may cause temporary exchange rate fluctuations, including for the forint.

Indicators of the Hungarian economy – Q3 The stagnant GDP measured on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the second half of the year, the weak industrial performance, but the favorable state of the services sector – point to a slow, uneven recovery, which is expected to accelerate only in 2026. The expansion of consumption and exports is expected to contribute to a further improvement in the external balance, which is already showing a surplus. For importers, this potentially means a stronger forint, while exporters need to cover their margins against possible exchange rate corrections.