Akcenta: The Hungarian economy returned to growth in 2025, risk management will come to the fore in 2026

Despite the improving macroeconomic indicators, the corporate environment continues to be characterized by significant uncertainty, primarily due to the volatility of the forint exchange rate.

According to the analysis, in 2025 the EUR/HUF exchange rate fluctuated between 370 and 395, which made financial planning and forecasting the profitability of export transactions difficult. Currency risk has increasingly become an operational risk, especially for companies with large export volumes.

With the easing of inflationary pressure, household consumption, primarily in services and trade, picked up in 2025. At the same time, the labor market remained tight, with wage cost growth outstripping productivity gains in several sectors. Despite the decline in financing costs, exchange rate fluctuations continued to pose a challenge for companies.

The engine of growth in the Hungarian economy remained exports, which remained at a high level in 2025. The foreign trade balance was positive, but the structure of exports – primarily due to the dominance of automotive and electronics supplier activities – limited the growth of added value. According to Akcenta’s analysis, a significant part of the margins continues to be realized outside the country’s borders.

According to the forecast, external risks – including the slowdown of the German economy, global trade tensions and the costs of the energy transition – will determine the outlook for the Hungarian economy in 2026. For companies, the coming year will be more of a test of resilience than a period of dynamic growth.