April inflation was higher than expected

Core inflation, calculated without volatile food and energy prices and official prices, slowed down similarly to the main indicator, reaching 5 percent. However, according to the expert, this is still a high level and indicates inflationary pressure.

“The development of food prices shows a mixed picture. Although they showed an increase of 5 percent above the average on an annual basis, they decreased by 1.3 percent compared to March. The margin caps played an important role in this monthly decrease, but it is uncertain how long they will remain in force. Moreover, if purchase prices increase in the coming months, for example due to favorable weather, this could also fuel food inflation,”

he added.

In addition, the new margin cap to be introduced in mid-May, which applies to drugstores, will reduce the rate of inflation. The question is how much other stores will reduce the prices of the affected products. This measure is likely to reduce the overall inflation rate by 0.2-0.3 percentage points while it is in force.

According to Dávid Németh, based on the current situation, inflation can be expected to be around 4 percent by the end of the year. The annual average may be slightly below 4.5 percent. At the same time, the expected recovery in domestic demand, in addition to the international trade war, poses an upward risk.