The labor market has stalled after the July surge

After three months of increase, the number of employed persons decreased in the last month of summer, in which summer seasonality may also have played a role. The decrease in the number of economically active persons on a monthly basis essentially represents a correction of the improvement of the previous month, so we see that the July data were exceptionally high. The above is tempered by the fact that the three-month data showed rather stagnation in the field of employment and the number of economically active people, i.e. the potential workforce, increased slightly on a three-month average. Employment growth may be limited, however, by the fact that the population aged 15-74, i.e. the working age group, decreased by approximately 65 thousand people in one year and a slight decline can also be observed compared to July.

A positive trend reversal in the labor market can only be expected if economic growth also finds itself more noticeably. The revival of the economy may be followed by the labor market over time. At the same time, the reaction time of labor markets is particularly slow, and the upcoming real economic changes may appear in the demand for labor with a delay of 9-12 months. Over time, as companies’ uncertainty eases, labor recruitment may start again. We continue to expect an average unemployment rate of 4.4% for 2025.