The Strait of Hormuz Crisis Strengthens China’s Green Strategy

Paradoxically, China is both the main villain of climate change due to its huge coal consumption, and at the same time our savior, as we can thank China for cheap electric cars, solar panels and batteries. The only ray of hope in the climate protection slowdown experienced in recent years is the rapid development of China’s green economy, the incredible spread of solar panels and electric cars, etc. Although China is responsible for almost a third of the world’s emissions, the strong green transition has managed to curb the growth of China’s carbon dioxide emissions in recent years. China’s green transition is accelerating the transition worldwide through exports.

Watch out for Beijing

The green transition in China is not an organic process, but rather the result of the Chinese government’s strategic planning and state subsidies. Therefore, what is in the famous Chinese five-year plans is of fundamental importance for the future of the Earth. The latest draft of the 15th five-year plan, for 2026–2030, was published in March 2026.

The plan presents a mixed picture, with encouraging things and less joyful elements. It is encouraging that the plan continues to strongly promote the development of “new energies” – by 2030, 25% of total energy consumption must come from clean sources (i.e. renewables or nuclear) compared to a mere 22% in 2025. Based on current trends, there is a good chance of this happening, and it will likely reduce emissions – 2025 was the first year when the country’s fossil-based electricity generation decreased not only in proportion but also in absolute terms.

Not very strong climate targets

What is not good is that the targets for reducing greenhouse gases are blurred and ambiguous. China traditionally does not set absolute emission targets, but aims to increase the carbon intensity of the economy, i.e. to produce the same amount of production with fewer and fewer units of emissions. The intensity targets of the previous five-year plan were not met, and the targets of the new plan are even more modest than the previous one.

The main problem with intensity targets is that they may actually increase emissions – and from the point of view of climate change, only the absolute value of emissions matters. The plan – contrary to expectations – did not specify an absolute emissions target either. It is also disappointing that there is no specific carbon phase-out schedule in the plan, only that “peaking of coal and oil consumption should be encouraged”.

The power of green industry is truly visible in today’s tense situation

The development of new energies will therefore likely further reduce China’s emissions, but the mandarins in Beijing are not putting this into writing. This is not unusual for China, as their climate targets are usually vaguely and very modestly formulated – and then they are partially exceeded. For China, reducing emissions remains more of a side benefit of the energy transition than a primary goal. This is not necessarily a bad strategy in terms of social acceptability – the current climate policy debates in the EU clearly show that abstract and long-term goals such as reducing emissions are difficult to defend against the daily problems of voters, the livelihood crisis or measures to address unemployment. Therefore, China’s climate strategy consists primarily of industrial development, not reduction goals.

As we write this, the latest war in the Middle East has only started two weeks ago, and it currently threatens a fossil fuel crisis on a scale not seen in decades. The Strait of Hormuz, which is blocked by the conflict, supplies Asia with oil, and China in particular. From this perspective, the correctness of China’s green transition as a national security goal is clearly confirmed, and what is truly remarkable is that the goal does not represent an economic burden, in fact, one third of China’s GDP growth now comes from clean technologies. The war will mean additional expenses in the short term, but in the medium term it will clearly benefit China, since the way out of the dependence on fossil energy worldwide is solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and electric cars, and these are manufactured by China.