Hungarian SMEs would consider a 5% minimum wage increase acceptable in 2026

In October 2025, the GKI conducted a company survey on the 2026 minimum wage increase, to which 1,460 employers responded. 12% of the workforce of the surveyed companies is employed on the minimum wage, and another 15% receives a guaranteed minimum wage. Based on their own statements, respondents could increase the minimum wage and the guaranteed minimum wage by maximum 5% on average, which is significantly below the 10-13% plans.

The 5% minimum wage increase falls short of the expected total gross wage increase, but in real terms (adjusted for inflation) it represents a 1% increase. Interestingly, there was no significant difference in the responses between sectors or company sizes: the average and median (middle value) were both around 5% in each category.

Changes in real minimum wage, real guaranteed minimum wage and real average earnings, 2010=100%  (2010-2026, gross values)

Source: Central Statistical Office, Government, GKI survey

Between 2010 and 2019, the real value of the minimum wage (+70%) and the guaranteed minimum wage (+85%) increased dynamically. In the following period, the weak economic growth and the high inflation that emerged in the wake of the coronavirus crisis and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine also had an adverse effect on the purchasing power of those with the lowest incomes. In these years, the real minimum wage and the guaranteed minimum wage stagnated or slightly decreased. The good news is that in 2024, nominal values ​​increased with low inflation, so the real value also increased (minimum wage: +11%, guaranteed minimum wage +6%). In 2025, the process continued – albeit at a slower pace – with the real value of the minimum wage increasing by 4% and the guaranteed minimum wage increasing by 2%.

For most of the period under review, the increase in the gross minimum wage and the guaranteed minimum wage exceeded the increase in the gross average earnings in real terms. The minimum wage and average earnings index converged by the early 2020s, but a re-opening can be observed from 2024: the minimum wage is growing faster than the average wage.

The possibilities of increasing the minimum wage are being debated not only in public discourse but also in academic circles. A generous increase in it could help the most vulnerable groups and support wage increases at wage levels close to the minimum wage. This could have a positive impact on consumption (since those with lower incomes typically spend their excess income). It could also improve the – currently difficult – budget situation through an increase in VAT, social security and personal income tax revenues. The reduction of wage differences would also bring a number of difficult-to-quantify social benefits.

On the other hand – as our survey also revealed – in the current economic situation, companies would find it difficult to manage the increased wages in this way, and potential layoffs would partially or completely offset the positive effects of the dynamic increase. Although the Hungarian labor market is tight, those earning the minimum wage typically have more difficulty finding a new job, partly due to educational and partly geographical reasons.