Grayling CEE Outlook 2026 analysis maps political risks and policy shifts in a region in transition

The report, produced by Grayling’s Public Affairs teams in ten countries – including experts from Hungary, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Ukraine – examines how governments and businesses are responding to growing geopolitical uncertainty and economic challenges.  

“In Central and Eastern Europe, 2026 is a time of adjustment. Almost every country in the region is facing political pressures, fiscal constraints and economic transformation at the same time – all amid ongoing geopolitical instability,”

– said Peter Fecko, regional head of Grayling.

 “For companies, the key to success will be to understand both local processes and local political realities. The CEE Outlook offers analysis and advocacy expertise that will help to navigate this complex environment.”

Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine remains a defining factor in Europe’s security architecture. Meanwhile, tensions are rising within the European Union, with debates about enlargement, sanctions, fiscal rules, and the balance between integration and national sovereignty once again on the agenda.  

 The Hungarian parliamentary election in April could represent a potential turning point both in domestic public life and in terms of political processes within the EU. The upcoming Hungarian elections could bring one of the most intense political struggles of the past decade and a half. The TISZA Party led by Péter Magyar has effectively replaced the previously fragmented opposition side, creating a bipolar competition with the government parties. Opinion polls show a strongly polarized picture: independent and opposition-led surveys measure a significant TISZA advantage, while government-friendly institutes also indicate a stable, albeit declining, Fidesz lead. Another Fidesz victory would likely maintain the current government’s foreign policy doctrine based on “connectivity,” while sectoral special taxes and selective state interventions would continue to play a significant role in its economic policy. A possible TISA government, on the other hand, promises a European orientation, the release of frozen EU funds through institutional reforms, and the strengthening of the predictability of the investment environment. A defining political period also lies ahead in Slovenia and Slovakia: a close election race is expected in Ljubljana, which will be determined by debates on pension and labor reforms, while a polarized election period is underway in Bratislava due to fiscal consolidation. Poland and Croatia, meanwhile, are balancing their institutional and strategic priorities: Warsaw is managing tensions between the government and the president while keeping defense spending close to 5% of GDP, while Zagreb is pursuing its goal of OECD accession amid slowing economic growth and domestic political divisions. 

In Romania, the fragility of the government coalition and budgetary pressures following sweeping tax measures pose challenges, while Bulgaria is grappling with uncertainties following the introduction of the euro and persistent inflationary pressures. In Serbia, in addition to domestic political uncertainty, preparations for EXPO 2027 are also shaping the investment environment. Ukraine