The GKI business climate index started 2026 with a minimal decline

By: Trademagazin Date: 2026. 01. 29. 12:33

🎧 Hallgasd a cikket: Nyelv: Sebesség: 1.05×

According to a survey by GKI Economic Research Ltd. – conducted with the support of the EU – consumers’ prospects in January did not change compared to December, but those of companies deteriorated slightly. The summary indicator of the prospects, the GKI business cycle index, decreased by almost 3 points. Companies’ willingness to employ did not change, and the aggregate expectation regarding the expected development of sales prices increased slightly on a monthly basis. The responding companies considered the predictability of the business environment to have noticeably improved in the first month of this year.

The GKI business confidence index in Januaryalmost4 points decreased compared to the previous month. Thus, its value essentially returned to the level of November last year. The industrial confidence index decreased significantly, by almost 5 points, and the trade and service indices decreased by 3 points each. At the same time, the construction index increased by 3 points – albeit from a rather low level. Regarding the prospects for the near future, the construction industry remains the least optimistic, while business services are the most optimistic sector.

The employment indicator, which indicates the aggregated staffing expectations of enterprises, remained unchanged in the first month of 2026 compared to December last year. In the next three months, 9% of enterprises are preparing to increase their staff, while 12% would reduce them. In the industry and business services sectors, those seeking to increase their staff are in the majority compared to those preparing for layoffs. In the construction industry, however, the majority are planning to cut back.

The perception of the predictability of the business environment improved significantly in January compared to the previous survey. The largest positive shift was experienced in the service sector, but industrial companies also felt the environment was much more predictable than in December.

The price indicator, which shows the expected development of companies’ selling prices in the next three months, slowly but gradually crept upwards in the autumn and winter months. Thus, this indicator reached its ten-month peak in January. In the next three months, 35% of companies would like to raise prices, while 8% are preparing to reduce prices – compared to 29% and 9% in December.

Last December, the GKI consumer confidence index rose to a two-year high, and then remained unchanged in January. In the current month, the population assessed their financial situation for the past 12 months and their financial prospects for the next 12 months as slightly improving compared to the previous survey. In contrast, the country’s economic situation over the next 12 months is seen as slightly deteriorating, and the perception of having enough money to spend on high-value consumer goods has also deteriorated slightly.