Employment at 4.5-year low

The number of employed people decreased by 37 thousand in one month, and by 42 thousand in one year. The picture is not good based on the three-month data either: between September and November 2025, the average number of employed people among the 15-74 year-olds was 4 million 456 thousand, which is the low level seen at the beginning of 2022. At the same time, despite the declining employment, the number of unemployed people also decreased by nearly 4 thousand in November. This means that the unemployment rate in November was 4.4%, which was in line with our expectations, and the three-month moving average decreased from 4.6% to 4.4%.

We have not seen any major changes in the labor market in the past three months, but November saw the largest monthly decline of this year in employment. It is also unfavorable that the number of economically active people (i.e. the potential labor force) also decreased by over 40 thousand. The significant decrease in the activity rate in November deviates from the seasonal pattern and has been observed earlier. If this continues, we can talk about significantly worsening prospects. No major wave of layoffs is visible yet, but inactivity has increased. The population aged 15-74 also decreased in October, and the decline and aging of the population may cause problems in the labor market in the long term.

We expect an average unemployment rate of 4.4% in 2025, but this could fall to 4.2% next year. We base our expectations on the fact that the economy is expected to perform better in 2026 than this year, which could be followed by a stabilization of the labor market over time. It is important to note that the labor market is generally slow to respond, so the effects are likely to be small at first, but will become more pronounced over time.