The global climate crisis will become serious by 2025: never before have so many alarming signs pointed in one direction

According to a recently published report reviewing the situation in 2025 ( https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biaf149/8303627 ), 2024 was the warmest year ever measured globally, while human activity is further accelerating the climate and ecological crisis. Of the 34 so-called “terrestrial critical indicators”, 22 are now at record levels, which clearly shows that our planet has to meet an ever-increasing challenge. Atmospheric warming has also accelerated in recent years: not only have human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases reached their peak, but several previously less well-known processes are also accelerating the warming. The Earth is absorbing more and more solar energy than it is radiating back into space. On the one hand, because our planet is getting darker due to the disappearing snow and ice surfaces. On the other hand, the light-reflecting ability of clouds is also weakening, because the decrease in the amount of aerosol particles makes the types of clouds that let the sun’s rays through more frequent.

At the same time, the Atlantic Ocean circulation system (AMOC), which, among other things, significantly influences the climate of Europe, is also weakening; further slowdown could cause serious regional climate disruptions (since intra-annual variability could increase, thus intensifying extremes). In addition, the number of deadly and economically significant weather extremes is increasing sharply: the damage caused by climate causes since 2000 has already exceeded 18 trillion US dollars globally.

What has happened in 10 years, when will 1.5 degrees come?

When the Paris Agreement was adopted in December 2015, global warming was about 1 °C compared to the pre-industrial period (1850-1900). Today, this value is approaching 1.4 °C, and based on data from the past decade, the rate of warming has accelerated significantly. If the current trend continues, the world could reach the critical 1.5°C warming level permanently around 2029, while ten years ago this threshold was only likely to be reached in 2042 (meaning that not only have we not been able to improve the situation in 10 years, but we have also wasted 13 years). Reaching the 1.5°C limit is now a surprisingly close reality – we are much closer to it than we previously thought, and we are currently approaching the most pessimistic scenarios of climate models.

The most important findings of the report are well illustrated in the 12 figures below, edited by me, translated into Hungarian, which show where we are heading, from energy consumption to forest destruction, from ocean warming to the frequency of extremely hot days.

Human activity continues to grow

A) Energy use from coal, natural gas and oil reached an all-time high in 2024, meaning global demand will continue to grow, not decrease. Although solar and wind power generation is expanding rapidly, it still accounts for only a fraction, 3-4%, of the total energy used by humanity.

B) Human greenhouse gas emissions also reached a record high of 40 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent in 2024. This clearly shows that emissions continue to rise along with economic development and energy demand.

C) What is even more problematic is that per capita carbon dioxide emissions have jumped back to pre-COVID levels (an average of 5 tonnes per person per year) after the past few years, effectively stagnating since 2007. This indicates that neither the global economy nor individual countries have been able to give up their usual prosperity and divest themselves from fossil energy use.

D) Per capita meat production and consumption is constantly increasing and is currently 50% higher than in 1980 – this means that half a million new livestock are needed every week. Since livestock farming – especially cattle – is associated with significant methane emissions, this increasing trend also contributes significantly to climate change.

E) Global forest loss was nearly 30 million hectares in 2024, compared to only half of that in 2000. This is the result of increasing deforestation and forest fires, which lead to a decrease in the carbon sequestration capacity and extra emissions not accounted for in climate models.

F) While it is positive that the share of greenhouse gas taxes imposed by carbon taxes has increased over the past 20 years, it still only covers 25-30% of global emissions. Although more and more countries are introducing such taxes and quota systems, their current share and amount have not yet been effective.