About 2007 and 2008

In recent year, our prime ministers have picked up the habit of addressing the public in “State of the Union-style” about the year. This reminds me of the joke: “This has been an average year, worse than the previous one but better than the next one”. Not many things happened in 2007 which would give us reason to be optimistic. The drop in food consumption, the below one per cent GDP growth, the increasing indebtedness of the population and the decline in investment are not positive trends. Allegedly, a drop of 25 per cent has been recorded in sales of some retail categories, compared to 2006. It would not be a bad idea to stop digging now, that we have reached the bottom. There are some positive signs. Some indexes based on Ecostat surveys show growing confidence in the future and the government has also made some optimistic statements. As László Parragh László, chairman of MKIK said in December, “A breakthrough is needed in 2008 and there is a realistic possibility, given the EU funds, that this will come”. In spite of some promising macro-economic signs, the question is still: what will happen to the retail sector? The only thing that has been constant in recent years is change. Personally, as someone from Gárdony, I believe that the expectations of retail chains are a bit optimistic. Our little town of 9,000 inhabitants appears as a place with substantial purchasing power on the maps of retail chains. We have a Maxi Coop, a Penny Market, a Spar and a Plusz store and we are going to get a nearby Aldi and a TESCO. As a consumer, I am full of optimism when I think of the intense competition for my money. As someone from the retail business, I am somewhat less optimistic. Of course, this is not my problem. Or is it? Will the suppliers be forced to finance this amazing abundance of stores? Can I take advantage of this boom? I could become a consultant for the army of sales and merchandising staff who will regularly visit these stores, offering my field coaching services. Maybe, 2008 will not be such a bad year after all.