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The TKI index stands at -3 points in July 2022 (interpreted on a scale between -100 and +100), which means that the players in the sector now perceive a situation slightly worse than stagnation. Compared to June, the value of the index decreased by 9 points, while compared to May, it decreased by 15 points. All of this shows that compared to the positive mood measured in May, the facts have a sobering effect. The expenditure structure of the Hungarian population, in addition to the inflationary effects already present, is now also influenced by factors that will raise the cost level of households in the coming months (increase in utility costs, uncertainty surrounding products with price caps). All this – as in all periods of depression – has a negative effect on HUFs spent in tourism. At the same time, the extremely weak forint is favorable for those coming from abroad. The TKI index fell sharply in the seventh month in the hospitality sector, but the decline was also significant in other tourism sectors, which was slightly offset by the slight increase in accommodation services. When broken down by employee categories, the value of the business cycle index is only in the slightly positive range for companies employing more than 15 people, and negative everywhere for companies with less than that. Compared to June, the value of the index decreased in all size categories.
The development of the number of employees in the last three months compared to the same period of the previous year stands at +13 points, which shows a slowly increasing labor demand. For the next three months, the same indicates +7 points, which means a slight excess demand, but less than in June. Companies continue to increase their stock, but the rate of expansion is decreasing. In contrast to June, the tourism employment expectation index in July 2022 was already slightly behind the index value calculated for the service sector.
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