Expectations hit bottom again

In industry, the plunge of the confidence index slowed down notably in December, but in January the index set to go south again.

 The value of GKI’s economic
sentiment index adjusted for seasonal effects that has been falling
since last autumn started the year at a new historical bottom.
According to the survey conducted by GKI Economic Research Co.
(www.gki.hu) with the support of the European Union, business and
consumer expectations have never been more pessimistic than this
January.
The evaluation of past and future production and stock
of orders deteriorated. The assessment of export orders improved
slightly, whereas the opinion on stock of own production remained
unchanged. Intentions of raising employment deteriorated further.
In
construction the confidence index fell slightly in January.
Expectations concerning production and orders basically stagnated and
intentions to increase employment decreased somewhat in January.
In
trade the confidence index improved slightly after the fall that has
prevailed since last July. Expectations concerning sales positions
increased significantly and the assessment of stocks and stock of
orders improved slightly as well.
GKI’s consumer confidence
index has been falling since October 2008 and in January it even went
under the value recorded during the “Bokros-package” of 1995.
Expectations of households concerning their financial position were
significantly worse, the assessment of future unemployment
deteriorated further while those concerning short-term savings
capacities remained unchanged compared to December. A big majority
(88%) of households still do not have money to save. Both present and
one-year term plans deteriorated concerning the purchase of high
value durables.