According to GKI Economic Research, the pre-election economic policy might vitalise the economy in the short term but doesn’t create the lasting basis of growth, because it fails to restore the safety of the legislative background and to attract capital.

Although the improving economic situation in Europe boosts Hungary’s export, and the purchasing power of the population is also growing a little, these two cannot but substitute the hardly repeatable agricultural performance of 2013. In 2013 Hungary’s economy grew by 1.1 percent – the EU stagnated and the euro area’s economy contracted by 0.4 percent. But let’s not forget that last year’s growth occurred from the rather low base of 2012’s minus 1.7 percent performance, and was largely the result of exceptional agricultural performance. GKI’s forecast for 2014 is a 1.5-percent GDP growth in Hungary (the same as the EU’s average). Hungary’s industrial production is likely to rise by 3 percent, real wages will increase by 2 percent and retail sales and consumption will expand by 1.5 percent. Although the Monetary Council keeps cutting base rates, its positive effect on growth doesn’t materialise as the lack of trust remains – and consequently, investment willingness stays frozen. After the weakening of the forint in February GKI’s survey showed that economic actors’ opinion on the perspectives of Hungary’s economy also turned to the worse. The planned 3-percent budget deficit will only be attainable with new economic measures throughout the year.