Chicken in the grey zone

Though the price of Hungarian poultry is rising, the sector is in danger. Prices might rise by as much as 30-40 per cent in the next two years, which might not be good for the popularity of poultry. Following the bird flu scare, confidence in Hungarian poultry has bees successfully restored, but the previous year had not been an easy one, with several farmers and processing enterprises going out of business. According to László Bárány, chairman of the Poultry Product Council, the present period is also critical for the sector, as fodder prices are rising steeply, while in order to stay in the EU market, money needs to be invested in animal welfare. József Gráf, minister of agriculture and rural development agrees that the situation is grave. He does not believe that market measures are sufficient to cope with the present situation, which means that government subsidies are needed. A decision has already been reached about measures worth HUF 15 billion. A 12-13 per cent rise in food prices is expected in 2009. The number of people employed in this sector has been significantly reduced, resulting in a stagnation, or drop in production. EU requirements are blamed by many for this. Growing import and illegal production – which accounts for 25-50 per cent of the market – are also major problems for the sector. Prospects are not very bright. According to estimates by AKI, the chicken sector faces stagnation. A more optimistic forecast also exists, but this would only require the complete termination of the black market. The size of illegal production can be estimated on the basis of fodder consumption, (2,13 kilos) which reveals that approximately a third of the poultry stock bred for slaughter disappears from statistics, as realistic fodder consumption is 1,8-1,9 kilos per bird.