Are Hungarians optimistic?

Let’s examine how consumer confidence developed in Hungary in the 2008-2011 period, according to the Corvinus-GfK Hungária Consumer Confidence Index survey. Until the autumn of 2008 the CCI index was relatively good, but when the global financial and economic crisis broke out, the indicators dropped in the fourth quarter. The complex Consumer Confidence Index was at 124.4 points, down 26 points from the third quarter. The Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE) plunged considerably to 130.5 points. March 2009 was the nadir, after which indicators started to grow during the time of the Bajnai government. In the first quarter of 2010 the CCI was up 50 points from the same period of 2009 and ICE was soaring; however, the Willingness to Buy Index was stagnating at a critically low level. After the parliamentary elections all indicators kept improving until the last quarter of 2010, when macroeconomic indicators turned unfavourable and households became more pessimistic again: all indicators dropped considerably. The second quarter of 2011 brought a transitional improvement before indicators plunged again the autumn, as a result of the government’s economic measures, the Greek crisis and the downgrading of the credit indicators of European countries. By the end of 2011 the indicators were down at the levels measured in the worst period of the economic crisis. In December 2011 nearly two thirds of Hungary’s population was of the opinion that they were doing worse than a year earlier; what is more, six out of ten did not expect any improvement in the following 12 months. More and more people think that their income will be worth less and consequently they spend their money more cautiously.